Access to and use of space, earth orbit, interplanetary and interstellar space, and space resources is an increasingly relevant topic, as access becomes more diversified, streamlined, and useful. This week at the Conference on World Affairs 2025, I moderated the Space Geopolitics panel titled “Star Wars or Star Peace? – Will the geopolitics of outer space create collaboration or competition in the cosmic frontier?”. I was honored to be joined by a diverse and expert group of panelists, who shared their expertise and insights on a wide range of topics: David W. Brown (Wiki, LinkedIn), Joe Cirincione (Wiki, LinkedIn), Laura Harder (LinkedIn), Daniel Porras (LinkedIn).

Session Recording

Discussion Summary and Notes¹

The panel discussion, moderated by Jeffrey Donenfeld, explored the complex interplay between geopolitics, technology, and the future of outer space. Panelists Joe Cirincione, Laura Harder, Daniel Porras, and David Brown brought diverse perspectives from national security, cybersecurity, space law, and science writing. Key themes included the lessons (or lack thereof) learned from nuclear arms control regarding space weaponization, the feasibility and dangers of space-based missile defense systems, the critical role of diplomacy in preventing an arms race in space, and the growing threat of space debris and cyberattacks to both military and civilian infrastructure. The discussion highlighted the increasing militarization rhetoric, the vulnerability of essential systems like GPS, and the tension between national competition and the need for international collaboration for scientific exploration and economic development in space. The panel concluded with calls for restraint, continued diplomacy, broader societal engagement, and the protection of space as a shared resource for humanity’s future.

10 Most Important Topics Covered

1. Lessons from Nuclear Arms Control: Discussion on whether past experiences with nuclear weapons and missile defense offer applicable lessons for preventing space weaponization, with skepticism about learning from history.
2. Missile Defense in Space (Star Wars): Analysis of the technical unfeasibility and high cost of space-based missile defense systems, like the proposed “golden dome,” and their potential to destabilize strategic balances (MAD).
3. Diplomacy and Arms Control Treaties: The importance and current challenges of international diplomacy (e.g., at the UN) to prevent an arms race in space, including difficulties in defining weapons and the reluctance of major powers to engage constructively.
4. Space Debris (Kessler Syndrome): The growing danger of space debris, exacerbated by anti-satellite (ASAT) tests, threatening current and future space activities, and the lack of effective cleanup initiatives.
5. Cybersecurity Threats in Space: The increasing vulnerability of satellites and ground systems to cyberattacks (jamming, hacking, malware like Acid Rain), impacting critical infrastructure like GPS, communications, and the internet.
6. Dual-Use Technology and Civil-Military Integration: The blurring lines between civilian and military space systems, making it difficult to distinguish targets and increasing risks for critical infrastructure.
7. International Collaboration vs. Competition: The historical benefits of international cooperation in space science (e.g., ISS, Cassini) contrasted with current geopolitical tensions and competing initiatives like the Artemis Accords versus Russian/Chinese partnerships.
8. Economic Development and Resource Exploitation: The potential for space-based industries (manufacturing, research, asteroid mining) and the need for legal frameworks to govern resource exploitation without triggering conflict.
9. Geopolitical Signaling and Escalation Risks: Examples of space activities (like ASAT tests) being used as geopolitical signals or warnings, and the potential for miscalculation and unintended escalation into conflict.
10. The Future of Humanity in Space: Broader philosophical points about humanity’s trajectory, the potential for self-destruction (Fermi Paradox) versus peaceful exploration, and the need for diverse voices (artists, philosophers) in shaping our future in space.

5 Follow-up Topics for Future Discussion

1. Developing Verifiable Arms Control for Space: Exploring concrete proposals and verification mechanisms for treaties or norms limiting specific types of space weapons or behaviors, addressing the definitional and monitoring challenges discussed.
2. Governance Models for Lunar/Asteroid Resource Exploitation: Deeper dive into potential legal and economic frameworks (beyond “first come, first served”) to manage space resource extraction equitably and sustainably, mitigating potential conflict points identified in the discussion.
3. Public-Private Partnerships in Space Security: Examining the roles, responsibilities, and potential conflicts of interest in the increasing reliance on commercial companies for national security space capabilities and critical infrastructure protection.
4. Global Space Traffic Management and Debris Mitigation: Focusing on practical, international solutions for managing orbital traffic and actively removing space debris, addressing the funding and liability issues raised.
5. Ethical Considerations of Advanced Space Technologies: Discussing the ethical implications of emerging capabilities like large-scale space-based solar power, advanced AI in space systems, and the potential discovery of extraterrestrial life, considering long-term consequences beyond immediate geopolitical concerns.

1. Generated from the discussion recording transcript by Google Gemini 2.5 Pro (experimental) on April 10, 2025. ↩︎